Russia/Ukraine Tensions - Your Guide to Potential Timelines and Scenarios
The largest military build up Europe has seen in decades, will it end with a whimper or a bang?
In recent days, the eyes of the world have turned to the borders between Ukraine and Russia, as the build-up of more than 130,000 Russian troops inside its own borders and within neighbouring Belarus continues to prompt alarm bells over a potential invasion.
According to U.S officials, Russia has assembled roughly 70% of the military capability needed for a full scale invasion of Ukraine.
This build-up has prompted the United States and its allies within NATO to send their own forces to nations bordering Ukraine such as Romania, Poland and Lithuania as a show of force.
While it’s a near certainty that NATO forces will not intervene militarily if Russia were to launch an incursion or full scale invasion of Ukraine, the U.S is eager to reassure its NATO allies that any further advance by Moscow beyond Ukraine will be met by force.
When Could it Happen?
With the Winter Olympics currently underway in Beijing until the 20th of February, a Russian offensive into Ukraine may be seen by the Chinese government as raining on their parade, as the Middle Kingdom enjoys its moment in the spotlight.
But after that, the issue of a potential Russian incursion into Ukraine becomes an open question according to Velina Tchakarova, the Director of the Austrian Institute for European and Security Policy.
Velina recently shared her thoughts on the issue in an article for Intelligence Quarterly:
“After February 20, a military attack is more likely, but only on a limited scale and with a limited timeframe for operations. In this regard, Russia will rely on China’s diplomatic backing in international organizations and regional forums, as well as strong economic and financial support,”
In a recent report to Reuters, two US officials speaking on the condition of anonymity stated that weather conditions would provide a peak window for Russia to move equipment forward between about 15 February and the end of March.
The Clock is Ticking
Between the diplomatic considerations related to the Olympics and the potential for snow melt to turn Ukrainian roads to a muddy bog (see short video below) under the weight of thousands of heavy Russian vehicles, the ideal window for Russia to make its move is a limited one.
But there is also another factor that has put Russia on the clock, its slowly evaporating leverage which stems from Europe’s reliance on Russian gas to fuel its industry and heat its homes during the winter.
At the end of January, European gas reserves were over 25% below their 5 year average and at roughly where they normally sit at the start of March.
This raises the very real threat of rationing and homes going unheated if Moscow was to cut off Europe’s gas supply at such a critical time of year.
The China Factor
Despite being on practically the other side of the world from Ukraine, recent developments in the relationship between Russia and China are key to how a potential large scale Russian invasion could unfold.
Former Prime Minister and China expert Kevin Rudd shared his viewpoint on Twitter late last week.
“This is highly significant. The first time since the Sino-Soviet split that China’s taken a definitive position on European security to support Russia on something as fundamental as NATO — a matter not immediately germane to China’s core security interests.
The world should get ready for a further significant deepening of the China-Russia security & economic relationship – one that as recently as 2014 (the first Russian military action in Ukraine) was remote. China now sees itself as a global, not just a regional, security actor.”
As Moscow becomes increasingly comfortable in its relationship with Beijing, this has opened up additional possibilities for the deployment of Russian combat troops.
Whether by necessity or due to a developing degree of genuine trust, Russia is pulling 12+ Battalion Tactical Groups (BTG) out its Eastern Military District that borders China and has sent them to Belarus.
BTG’s are front line combat units, with each supported by 12-18 heavy artillery pieces or rocket artillery batteries. They can also be integrated with mobile surface to air missile batteries and/or an anti-tank company equipped with long range anti-tank missiles.
According to Michael Korfman, the director of Russia Studies at the Center for Naval Analyses, the Russian Far East hasn’t been stripped of combat power like this in decades.
With some of these Russian forces less than 200km north of the Ukrainian capital of Kiev, these additional forces are providing Russian President Vladimir Putin with additional strategic options and leverage as the crisis continues to unfold.
The Take from Western Intelligence Agencies
With the ideal window for Russian action relatively limited, if we are going to see a Russian incursion into Ukraine the likeliest time is in the coming weeks , while the weather conditions are the most favourable and Moscow retains a high degree of leverage over its European gas consumers.
On Friday morning (U.S time), the White House urged all Americans to leave Ukraine, amidst warnings from national security advisor Jake Sullivan that it was a “very distinct possibility” that Russia will invade Ukraine in a “reasonably swift time frame”.
According to reports from respected German media outlet Der Spiegel, the U.S has warned its NATO allies of an imminent Russian attack on Ukraine which could occur as early as Wednesday.
A Matter of Degrees
As the situation continues to unfold, its important to keep in mind that there are a number of different scenarios that vary from resulting in what is effectively a continuation of the status quo, to developments that may have far reaching consequences.
For example, a relatively small Russian incursion several km into Eastern Ukraine, may prompt the fire and brimstone rhetoric from the White House and NATO, but it would likely result in little lasting change beyond some relatively limited sanctions.
At the other end of the spectrum a full scale invasion and occupation/annexation of Eastern Ukraine would likely prompt a far more serious response from the West. One of the options on the table in this scenario is crippling economic sanctions targeting Russia’s banking system and export industry’s.
This would no doubt prompt an angry response from Moscow, who would likely deploy their own economically damaging counterattack, potentially in the form of cutting off energy supplies and access to key mineral exports.
Ultimately the outcome of the current tensions remains unclear, it could all be over with a whimper as the spring thaw comes to Eastern Europe or the beginning of a period of turmoil for Europe and global markets, or anything in between.
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