Attempting to cover a 1,200km pipeline through the desert with air defences sensitive enough to pick up small drones would be challenging to say the least.
Even if we assume that your claims about Iran's capabilities are declining fast, it's very easy to stop oil tankers pass such a narrow and long area, one only needs a small speedboat and a handheld rocket launched which Iran has plenty
Two weeks claim reminds me of typical American hubris driven thinking. Maybe one should remind himself of Iraq, Afghanistan, Syria, ... even bombing of tiny Yugoslavia with very little military capability lasted almost 3 months before NATOs only half goal has been achieved.
you do not understand asymmetry on the consequence side
Sure, it's easy to knock out small speed boats with Javelins during the day, or even during night, but if just one in 10 of those succeed, you effectively have strait closed because none would risk a tanker if chance is 10% (or even 1%).
and to remove that risk one has to have boots on the ground
A swarm of Shahed drones could easily take out the Saudi pipeline.
There in lays a huge part of the problem.
Attempting to cover a 1,200km pipeline through the desert with air defences sensitive enough to pick up small drones would be challenging to say the least.
Pretty good. You could expand the article slightly by stating:
- we're going into a Northern Hemisphere summer so gas demand should be lower,
- Countries would start releasing from their strategic oil reserves,
- Some ships headed to China are passing through the straight.
Also:
- Iran's missile supply is in rapid decline,
- There drone production capability is in rapid decline.
I would guess that Iran can limit tanker flow for two weeks before they run out of weapons so the impact is going to be very short term.
Even if we assume that your claims about Iran's capabilities are declining fast, it's very easy to stop oil tankers pass such a narrow and long area, one only needs a small speedboat and a handheld rocket launched which Iran has plenty
Two weeks claim reminds me of typical American hubris driven thinking. Maybe one should remind himself of Iraq, Afghanistan, Syria, ... even bombing of tiny Yugoslavia with very little military capability lasted almost 3 months before NATOs only half goal has been achieved.
Even easier to knock out a small speedboat with a Javelin missile
you do not understand asymmetry on the consequence side
Sure, it's easy to knock out small speed boats with Javelins during the day, or even during night, but if just one in 10 of those succeed, you effectively have strait closed because none would risk a tanker if chance is 10% (or even 1%).
and to remove that risk one has to have boots on the ground
How many Iranian soldiers do you think are going to volunteer to go on that suicide mission?
more than ship crew members are willing
this war is not about who can throw more punches but who can eat more of them
things are going to get more complicated when the gulf of aden is closed by houthis....
Can VLCC transit the Suez? I wouldn't think so.