The HFI three-week call is the sharpest timeline in this piece. Worth watching closely.
One upstream layer that feeds your gasoline and distillate data: US refiners are running at 5-year seasonal high throughput while cutting back on crude procurement. They’re converting existing crude inventory into exportable products — not buying new barrels at crisis premiums. The IEA confirmed the draw: 250 million barrels of global inventory gone in March and April alone.
When refinery crude storage depletes, throughput drops. When throughput drops, both domestic supply and the export surge stop at the same time. Your product stock charts are the downstream signal. The crude storage drawdown is the leading indicator.
The China question you raised — why drain reserves to benefit rivals — is exactly the right one to be asking.
Thanks for putting this relevant and timely well researched piece together Tarric 🙏
From my reading on historical Chinese political culture they will keep supplying the market with reserves until the USA cannot then they will reevaluate (personal opinion cease to release that is not an opinion from the readings though).
From the readings China will abide by the established power (in this case USA world power) wishes until it is clear by actions other then their own that USA are no longer the world power then they will make their move/s.
Essentially China only act when their opponent cannot or will not act of its own accord for example China became more active in Oceania only when Australia chose to stop focusing on relations in the region and backed off once Australia became active again.
China remain active in the Pacific where they have existing arrangements when Australia chose not to act and are active where USA have chosen not to act.
Time is on China’s side in terms of fuel reserves and also politically there is no fixed leadership terms in China. Trump has a limited number of days left in office which distorts any negotiations.
That’s an interesting perspective, there is certainly a great deal of geopolitical mileage to be had in ensuring as much oil is getting to the global market as possible.
Beijing has already some brownie points with its neighbours and even some its rivals by continuing to deliver previously contracted cargoes of diesel, making an exception to its export ban.
I’m curious to see where things go from here, whether Beijing becomes more overt in illustrating the favour they are doing the region or if they eventually decide that they are drawing to heavily on their reserves.
I wonder if there is a complex dance of back room deals being done to prevent the global economy from going into a freefall, and if so how finely balanced those deals are.
The HFI three-week call is the sharpest timeline in this piece. Worth watching closely.
One upstream layer that feeds your gasoline and distillate data: US refiners are running at 5-year seasonal high throughput while cutting back on crude procurement. They’re converting existing crude inventory into exportable products — not buying new barrels at crisis premiums. The IEA confirmed the draw: 250 million barrels of global inventory gone in March and April alone.
When refinery crude storage depletes, throughput drops. When throughput drops, both domestic supply and the export surge stop at the same time. Your product stock charts are the downstream signal. The crude storage drawdown is the leading indicator.
The China question you raised — why drain reserves to benefit rivals — is exactly the right one to be asking.
Thanks for putting this relevant and timely well researched piece together Tarric 🙏
From my reading on historical Chinese political culture they will keep supplying the market with reserves until the USA cannot then they will reevaluate (personal opinion cease to release that is not an opinion from the readings though).
From the readings China will abide by the established power (in this case USA world power) wishes until it is clear by actions other then their own that USA are no longer the world power then they will make their move/s.
Essentially China only act when their opponent cannot or will not act of its own accord for example China became more active in Oceania only when Australia chose to stop focusing on relations in the region and backed off once Australia became active again.
China remain active in the Pacific where they have existing arrangements when Australia chose not to act and are active where USA have chosen not to act.
Time is on China’s side in terms of fuel reserves and also politically there is no fixed leadership terms in China. Trump has a limited number of days left in office which distorts any negotiations.
You are most welcome mate.
That’s an interesting perspective, there is certainly a great deal of geopolitical mileage to be had in ensuring as much oil is getting to the global market as possible.
Beijing has already some brownie points with its neighbours and even some its rivals by continuing to deliver previously contracted cargoes of diesel, making an exception to its export ban.
I’m curious to see where things go from here, whether Beijing becomes more overt in illustrating the favour they are doing the region or if they eventually decide that they are drawing to heavily on their reserves.
I wonder if there is a complex dance of back room deals being done to prevent the global economy from going into a freefall, and if so how finely balanced those deals are.